Chapter 4: Turn

Three Changes Happening on the Turn

You cannot handle it with the same thinking as the flop

Ranges get narrower

Only the hands that called on the flop remain. Your opponent’s range is stronger on average, and bluffs get through less often.

The pot is bigger

Even with the same 33% bet, you are betting more than twice the chips of the flop. Mistakes cost more.

The SPR drops

The remaining stacks shrink, and your options on the river are limited. You need to decide on the river as early as the turn.

The most common failure on the turn is inertia: “I bet the flop, so I bet the turn too.” The flop and the turn are separate decisions; every time, evaluate whether the turn card changed how the ranges interact.

Turn Card Types

Decide by which range it helped

Type of card	Who it helps	Direction of action
Blank (offsuit 2–5)	Nobody	The advantage from the flop continues as it is
Broadway (K, Q, J)	Mostly the raiser’s side	A good chance to barrel. Raise the frequency
A low card that connects with the board	Mostly the caller’s side	Lower the frequency. You can also give up
Flush completes	The side that held the draws	Be careful if you do not have it
Board pairs	Neither side	Bluffs get through easily. Bet small

Questions for the decision

• Is this card found more in your range or in your opponent’s range?
• Of the hands that called on the flop, which ones improved with this card?

Four Questions for Whether to Barrel

Answer them in order, and the decision comes out by itself

• ① Did this turn card help your range?
• ② Of the hands your opponent called the flop with, how many fold now?
• ③ Can your hand win when called (is it value)?
• ④ If it cannot win, does it have room to win if it hits (is it a semi-bluff)?

If it is neither ③ nor ④, it is a hand you should give up. Bluffs on the turn cost more than on the flop. The courage to fold is part of the skill.

Delayed C-bets and When to Give Up

Your options after checking

What a delayed C-bet is

• Checking the flop and betting the turn
• It is established that your opponent’s range is weak too
• You can use the middle hands you checked on the flop

Conditions for it to work

• Your opponent does not take advantage of your flop check by betting
• The turn card worked in your favor
• Your opponent checked = there are fewer strong hands

Standards for when to give up

• No equity and no fold equity
• The turn card helped your opponent’s range
• You cannot form a plan to keep betting to the river

When you do give up

• Stop here, and your loss is only one bet, on the flop
• Keep going, and you lose two bets, on the turn and the river

The feeling that “I bet once, so I cannot back out” is the sunk cost fallacy. Chips you have already paid have nothing to do with the decisions from here on.