Calculators
This page calculates with the formulas from Strategy Method Chapter 6 and Chapter 9. Enter amounts in BB and bet sizes as a share of the pot (%). The values you enter are not sent anywhere.
Pot Odds
From the pot and your opponent’s bet, get the equity you need to call.
Input examples (from Strategy Method Chapter 6)
- Bet size (share of the pot)
- 33.0%
- Equity needed to call
- 19.9%
How to read the result (from the text of Strategy Method Chapter 6)
- Win 1 in 5 is enough (est.).
Formula and assumptions
- s = bet ÷ pot
- Equity needed to call = s ÷ (1 + 2s)
Read Strategy Method Chapter 6, “Pot Odds: The Equity You Need to Call”
MDF (Minimum Defense Frequency)
From your opponent’s bet size, get the lower limit of defense so you do not fold too much.
Input examples (from Strategy Method Chapter 6)
- MDF (continue at least this much)
- 66.7%
- Most you may fold
- 33.3%
How to read the result (from the text of Strategy Method Chapter 6)
- Against a 50% bet, defend 66.7%.
- The smaller your opponent bets, the less you may fold.
Formula and assumptions
- s = bet size ÷ 100
- MDF = 1 ÷ (1 + s)
- Most you may fold = 1 − MDF
MDF is “the lower limit so you are not exploited”; against an opponent who does not bluff, you do not need to defend it.
Read Strategy Method Chapter 6, “MDF: The Lower Limit So You Do Not Fold Too Much”
Bluff EV
From the pot, your bet and the chance your opponent folds, get the bluff’s EV and the break-even point.
- Bluff EV
- +0.65 BB
- Break-even fold rate
- 41.2%
How to read the result (from the text of Strategy Method Chapter 6)
- If they fold 41.2% or more, the bluff works.
Formula and assumptions
- EV = p × pot − (1 − p) × bet (p = the chance they fold)
- Break-even fold rate = bet ÷ (pot + bet)
“The chance they fold” is an estimated value. It is the only uncertain element. Even if the formula is correct, rough inputs give a rough answer.
Read Strategy Method Chapter 6, “EV Calculation: When a Bluff Works”
Outs and Completion Odds
From the number of outs on the flop, get the chance of completing on the next 1 card and over the 2 cards to the river.
Input examples (from Strategy Method Chapter 6)
- Complete on the next 1 card (exact)
- 19.1%
- Complete on the next 1 card (rule of 2)
- 18.0%
- Complete by the river over 2 cards (exact)
- 35.0%
- Complete by the river over 2 cards (rule of 4)
- 36.0%
Formula and assumptions
- Next 1 card (exact) = outs ÷ 47
- 2 cards (exact) = 1 − (47 − outs)(46 − outs) ÷ (47 × 46)
- Rule of 2 and 4 (rough): next 1 card = outs × 2, 2 cards = outs × 4
You can use × 4 only when you will actually see both of the 2 cards (such as when all-in). If you will face another bet on the turn, calculate with × 2.
Read Strategy Method Chapter 6, “Estimating Equity: The Rule of 2 and 4”
Risk of Ruin
From the win rate, standard deviation and bankroll, get an approximation of the probability of going broke.
Input examples (from Strategy Method Chapter 9)
- Probability of going broke (approximation)
- 10.8%
How to read the result (from the text of Strategy Method Chapter 9)
- The higher the win rate, the harder it is to go broke.
- The larger the variance, the easier it is to go broke.
- Bankroll works exponentially.
Formula and assumptions
- Probability of going broke (approximation) = exp(−2 × win rate × bankroll ÷ standard deviation²)
This is a rough calculation by a continuous approximation. In reality it varies with shot taking, stop-losses and withdrawals.
The formula is used with a win rate greater than 0 (assuming you are winning).