Case Studies
Read the situation, write down your own decision (action, size, reasons), and then open “See the explanation.” What you write is saved only in the browser on this device and is not sent anywhere.
Case 1: The Flop C-bet
Level 2 · 6-max · 100BB effective stack
What Is Your Decision?
Check, or bet?
If you bet, what size?
Give 3 reasons for it.
Before you open “See the explanation,” put your action, your size, and your reasons into words.
See the explanation
Explanation of Case 1
Conclusion
- Bet 25 – 33%. Keep the frequency high
- KQ is clearly a hand on the bluff side
Reason (GTO)
- The raiser has both the range advantage and the nut advantage
- The BB can hardly have any A-x
- A board where you can push with your whole range
Numbers
- A 25% bet = 1.375BB
- Fold rate needed = 1.375 ÷ 6.875 = 20%
- Nearly half of the BB’s range folds
Exploit
- Against opponents who do not fold: lower your bluff frequency
- Against opponents who fold too much: push 100% of the time
Alternative line
- Checking back is also possible some of the time
- Because hitting a K or Q still leaves room to win
Common mistakes
- “Nothing hit, so I check”
- Looking at your own hand before the board
The heart of this spot is not the strength of your hand but the structure: “your opponent can hardly have an A.”
Looking it up in the action tables
- Table
- ① IP raiser
- Cell
- A-high × pure air
- Answer
- Bet small
Check with the calculator
Read with it: Strategy Method Chapter 3: C-bet
Case 2: An Overpair on a Low Board
Level 3 · 6-max · 100BB effective stack
- CO opens 2.5BB, BB calls
- Pot 5.5BB
- BB checks
- You (CO): A♠ A♦
What Is Your Decision?
Bet pot-sized?
Bet small?
Or check?
Think about which part of your opponent’s range you are losing to.
Before you open “See the explanation,” put your action, your size, and your reasons into words.
See the explanation
Explanation of Case 2
Conclusion
- A mix of a smallish bet (33%) and a check
- Do not choose a big bet
Reason (GTO)
- The nuts (87, 54, 66, 55, 77) are on the BB’s side
- The raiser’s range advantage has almost disappeared
- AA is near the top of your range, but on this board it can still lose
Numbers
- AA on its own still has high equity
- But if you bet big, the hands you are beating fold and only the hands beating you stay
Exploit
- Against a passive opponent: a protection bet gains value
- Against an aggressive opponent: check and pick off bluffs
Alternative line
- Check → call your opponent’s bet
- Manage the pot from the turn on
Common mistakes
- “It is an overpair, so protect it” with a pot-sized bet
- Creating a shape where only the hands you want to fold, fold
The strength of your hand (AA) and the strength of your range (CO’s range) are different things. Do not mix these 2.
Looking it up in the action tables
- Table
- ① IP raiser
- Cell
- Low connected × overpair
- Answer
- Judgment call (small)
Read with it: Strategy Method Chapter 3: C-bet
Case 3: The Turn Barrel Decision
Level 3 · 6-max · 100BB effective stack
- BTN opens, BB calls
- Flop 9♠6♦4♣: BB checks → 33% bet → call
- Turn J♥: BB checks
- Pot 11BB
- You (BTN): A♣ K♣
What Is Your Decision?
Fire the 2nd barrel, or check?
Which range did this turn card help?
Before you open “See the explanation,” put your action, your size, and your reasons into words.
See the explanation
Explanation of Case 3
Conclusion
- Barrel is recommended. A size of 50 – 66%
- Decide your river plan first
Reason (GTO)
- The BB’s flop calling range has almost no J-x
- The J is a card that helps the raiser’s range
- Your opponent’s range is mainly 9x, 6x and draws
Numbers
- AK’s showdown value is almost zero
- Your opponent’s calling range is mainly pairs, and A-high cannot win
Exploit
- Against an opponent who folds too much on the turn, it gains value
- Against an opponent who calls a lot, stop bluffing
River plan
- If called, give up on most rivers
- Consider a 3rd barrel only when an A or K comes
Common mistakes
- Checking because “A-high has showdown value”
- In reality it cannot win, so using it as a bluff is correct
Showdown value is “the chance of winning as things stand.” If it cannot beat your opponent’s calling range, it is not value.
Looking it up in the action tables
- Table
- ⑤ Turn
- Cell
- Favors you × air with blockers
- Answer
- Bet medium
Read with it: Strategy Method Chapter 4: Turn
Case 4: The River Bluff-Catch
Level 4 · 6-max · 100BB effective stack
- CO opens, BB calls
- Flop K♠Q♦7♣: 33% bet → call
- Turn 2♥: 66% bet → call
- River 5♦: pot-sized bet
- You (BB): K♦ J♠
What Is Your Decision?
Call, or fold?
The equity you need is 33.3%.
Count your opponent’s combos before you decide.
Before you open “See the explanation,” put your action, your size, and your reasons into words.
See the explanation
Explanation of Case 4
Count the value
- AA 6 / KQ 6 / KK 1 / QQ 3
- 77 3 / 22 3 / 55 3
- About 25 combos in total
Count the bluffs
- Missed AJ, AT, JT and so on
- Realistically 8 – 12 combos
Calculation
- Bluff ratio = 10 ÷ 35 ≒ 29%
- Below the 33.3% you need → leans fold
Blocker correction
- Holding a K → your opponent has fewer KQ and KK (already counted in the value above. Leans call)
- Holding a J → reduces your opponent’s bluffs (leans fold)
- On balance, it still leans fold
The population
- A pot-sized 3rd barrel is weighted almost entirely toward value
- Underbluffing on the river is the strongest tendency
Common mistakes
- “It is top pair, so I cannot fold”
- Decide not by the strength of your hand but by your opponent’s combo table
There are spots where folding is itself the correct answer. Whether you can fold here is the line between intermediate and advanced.
Looking it up in the action tables
- Table
- ⑥ River
- Cell
- Pot-sized bet × medium value
- Answer
- Judgment call → fold
Read with it: Strategy Method Chapter 5: River
Case 5: Thin Value on the River
Level 5 · 6-max · 100BB effective stack
- BTN opens, BB calls
- Flop 9♠6♦4♣: 33% bet → call
- Turn J♥: check → check
- River 3♦: BB checks
- Pot 12BB
- You (BTN): A♦ 9♦
What Is Your Decision?
Check back, or bet?
If you bet, how much?
Name 3 hands your opponent will call with.
Before you open “See the explanation,” put your action, your size, and your reasons into words.
See the explanation
Explanation of Case 5
Conclusion
- Bet a small size of 33 – 40%
- Checking back misses value
Your opponent’s calling range
- 9x (with a weak kicker)
- Some 6x
- Some missed draws (curiosity calls)
Numbers
- Against 9x, you are ahead with the A kicker
- You beat more than half of their calling range → the value bet works
Why this size
- If you bet big, 9x folds
- You do not want to fold out hands with nothing; you want the weak 9x to pay
Exploit
- Against opponents who do not fold: raise the size up to 50%
- Against a tight opponent: checking is also fine
Common mistakes
- Checking back because “I want to win safely”
- Not taking value when you are winning is the same loss as paying when you are losing
Thin value is decided not by “am I winning?” but by “is there a weak hand that will call?”
Looking it up in the action tables
- Table
- ⑥ River
- Cell
- Opponent checks × thin value candidate
- Answer
- Bet small
Read with it: Strategy Method Chapter 5: River